This might be a window into why that shakeup just took place at the top of Team McCain. In the past, Republicans have derided Obama's attempts to increase the playing field beyond a dozen or so swing states. Well, with polls showing him leading in Virginia and Colorado, and within the margin of error in North Carolina and Georgia, you may have thought he had already accomplished that.

Yet, this poll, if accurate, is as important, if not more so, than any of them:

Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%.

In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana. Fifty percent (50%) of Montana Democrats want Clinton named as Obama’s running mate. Just 29% of all Montana voters would like to see Clinton as the Vice Presidential nominee.

Against McCain, Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.

This state only has 3 electoral votes, so you may think this is hyperbole. But it is not. Let me explain. Montana is not only a state where President Bush won with 59% of the vote (current approval rating: 37%), but one with a plethora of independent and libertarian-minded voters. Ross Perot got 26% of the vote here in 1992, essentially costing George H. W. Bush the state (President Clinton won it with only 38% of the vote).

If Obama can be up 5 points in Montana, he absolutely can win in Alaska and Nevada, states that McCain needs to win. He can also literally make McCain fight a pitched battle to protect his home state of Arizona, and perhaps even spend some time/money in parts of Nebraska (like Maine, Nebraska allocates electoral votes by congressional district) and perhaps even Idaho, to ensure victory there. For there are many of the same types of voters in these states out West.

All in all, this is very bad news for the McCain Campaign.