Two Midwestern "moderates," Deborah Pryce (R-OH) and Jerry Weller (R-IL) are retiring, and the prospects aren't looking very good for the GOP to hold onto these seats:

First Pryce's seat, OH-15 (from a polling memo I obtained):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 49%

Steve Stivers (R) 39%

Donald Elijah (unafilliated) 5%

And the Weller seat, IL-11 (also from a polling memo):

Debbie Halvorson (D) 43%

Martin Ozinga (R) 32%

Jason Wallace (Green) 6%

I have posited before, and continue to believe that this is the second round of the wave. The first round saw the GOP get decimated in the Northeast in 2006, currently holding only one seat in New England and losing seats in Pennsvlvania, Connecticut, New Hampshire, etc.

This round will be among slightly more traditionally conservative Midwesterners, in states such as Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota. Old-style "Republicans" have had it with runaway spending, scandal and Iraq, not to mention the economic woes facing this region. Parts of Upstate New York and Western Pennsvlvania can also be counted for analytic purposes here. In these areas alone the GOP will lose 15-20 seats this cycle, unless something drastically changes. Further turning it into the party of the Deep South and parts of the West where religion is king, such as Mormon Utah.